05-25-06

I’m finally starting to feel a bit better after being sick for about two straight weeks. I’ve had some kind of icky stomach virus that also made my head and whole body feel awful. I think that just as I was getting over it after the first week, I caught it again and started the whole process over. It also spread around most of my family during that time. Hopefully we’ll all be completely over it by this weekend.

All my television shows are done for the season. It’ll be nice to have the extra hour or two to do other things on those nights. It’s too bad that they don’t spread them around so that I could have 2 shows to watch for awhile, and then when they ended have 2 others to watch. Instead I go from watching 4 to having none to watch. To finally get around to answering Darve’s comment on my last blog, no I don’t have that episode recorded anymore. Unfortunately for you I erased it right after we watched it that night. What’s up with you only being able to record one show at a time? Are you living in the stone age? Our DVR can record two shows at once, and if I tell it to record all episodes of the Amazing Race on Channel 11, it knows when it lasts two hours instead of one and it adjusts the recording time to match.

We’re actually going out of town this weekend. Kimberly’s grandmother (KM’s mom) in Corpus Christi is in poor health. We’ve only gone to see her once since we’ve been married and that was before the kids were born, so we’re past due to visit her. While we’re down there we’re going to make the most of it and visit the tourist sites, so I should have plenty of pictures when we get back.

05-18-06: Hey, I got one right!

I’d better point out the fact that I actually predicted the final three of the Amazing Race in the correct order. Overall I did pretty good with this show, because even my wrong picks on who would be eliminated were always very close. The Hippies did indeed win, followed by the Frat Boys, and then Ray & Yolanda. I knew the Frat Boys were very strong, and they entered into the final challenge with a decent lead over the Hippies. Fortunately for the Hippies, the challenge was mental (finding the flags of all the countries they had visited on the race, and putting them in the correct order). The Hippies were able to overtake the Frats and run to the finish line while the Frats were still trying to figure out what their mistakes were. I like having this type of final challenge as it is appropriate to the race and allows for this type of finish, instead of coming down to the luck of who gets the best cab driver as past seasons have had at the end. The previous season, which was the “family edition” that mostly took place in the U.S., also had a good final challenge that had the teams putting together a large, standing puzzle map of the U.S. where each state was a separate puzzle piece.

This show has had so many seasons now that they rarely visit a country that hasn’t been on the show before. Off the top of my head, the only new country that the show went to this season was Oman (there may be others that I’m forgetting – plus I missed one or two seasons while I was in Iraq, so they may have used Oman before but I doubt it). I had actually thought that Oman would be one of the poor, backwater Middle East countries, but it seemed to be a modern, rich country (modern in appearance at least, probably not in other ways). Learning about other places is one of my favorite aspects of this show. I’ll be watching again next season.

05-15-06

Wrong, wrong, wrong.

This may be my final TV commentary blog of the season since Survivor is over, and I don’t really care who wins American Idol now that Chris is gone. Amazing Race only has one episode to go, and I don’t have a clear favorite left there either.

Let me close out with what I want to say about last night’s Survivor finish. I said Cirie would win the tiebreaker challenge – wrong. I said that one of the two guys would win the final immunity challenge – wrong. I said that both “groups of two” would honor their final-two agreements concerning who they would take to the vote – wrong. I was bummed that Terry didn’t make it to the final two. I didn’t like either Aras or Danielle, so I wasn’t going to be happy no matter which of them won the vote. It should have been a good thing that Danielle won the tiebreaker challenge, but she didn’t honor her agreement with Terry. I fully realize that you have to deceive people in this game, but to privately make a pact with someone and then to completely disregard that pact once you have the immunity is pretty low. Danielle disregarded her pacts more than once. It caught up with her since she didn’t get much support from the jury, but she screwed Terry in the process. I was also mad about the final immunity challenge being a balance challenge. I was hoping for something dealing with endurance, strength, or sheer will-power. It seemed that this would be the case since they had a reward challenge for “power food” that Jeff said would help with the final challenge. The stupid “balance yourself on an unstable little platform on the water” thing totally discounts endurance, strength, or will-power. In fact, this type of challenge gives an advantage to the person with the smallest height and weight. After all the battling between Terry and Aras, I hated to see it all come down to a challenge where luck played such a large role. Bummer. What a sorry ending to this season. I didn’t realize that Cirie was so popular with the fans. I guess if Terry hadn’t been around in the second half of the game, I would have gravitated toward Cirie as the most-likable one left. I know she started as a huge underdog and stuck around way longer than the original power players in her tribe had said she would, but I think most of that was luck. Her tribe won lots of immunity challenges (and she probably wasn’t the reason they won), which allowed her to stick around for awhile. Her tribe’s original alliance of four cracked up on their own, allowing her to jump into alliances with people on both sides – which from that point forward she was a power player and not an underdog. True, she managed to jump past Bobby and Bruce in the pecking order before the alliance of four cracked up, but that was mostly due to Bobby and Bruce’s antics. Good for her that she accomplished what she did and learned what she did, but Terry is by far the most popular player in my book for this season.

I don’t know whether or not I’ll comment on these TV shows next season, but if I do, I’d better stick to the commentary and lay off the predictions – I’m apparently horrible at it.

05-12-06

This week’s recap:

American Idol: I blew this one big time. The voters let me down by allowing Chris to go home in fourth place. This was one of those weeks that happen every so often with this show in which the fans of a particular contestant weren’t as motivated to “vote like crazy” for their favorite as much as the fans of the other contestants were. The judges affect these types of trends in two ways. If they give overwhelming positive feedback to an underdog contestant, it can inspire more people than usual to help that person out that week (this is intended by the judges – or at least understandable to them). If the judges are very harsh with a contestant however, this really inspires all of that person’s supporters to “vote like crazy” for them because their favorite is in danger of leaving (this causes the opposite of what the judges intended). This is often harmful to a contestant who received “normal” reviews from the judges. The judges neither inspired nor scared anyone to “vote like crazy” for that person. Even when that contestant is thought to be one of the best, tons of people who want them to stick around mistakenly believe them to be “safe” and aren’t motivated to work the phones on their behalf that week. We’ve seen this happen a few times on each season of the show, but usually the victim only falls to next to last place, and rebounds the next week because their fans realize what almost happened. Unfortunately Chris landed in last place this time, to the shock of Idol fans everywhere. The good news for him is that he will definitely get a record deal, and is likely to be a success. I’m tempted to make my new prediction in this order: Taylor, Katharine, Elliott. However, Elliott seems to be performing well under pressure, while Katharine is as nervous as can be and it’s hurting her performances. If both do their best, I think Katharine is better, but I don’t think she’ll do her best under all the pressure. You know my predictions are horrible, but I’m going to say: Taylor, Elliott, Katharine. Even if Taylor makes mistakes, I think his popularity and fan base is large enough compared to the other two to put him over the top.

Amazing Race: Wrong again. Once again, I got the last two teams in reverse order, but overall I did pretty good. Ray and Yolanda are still in it, which makes me glad. I’m kinda rooting for them to win, but I still don’t expect them to. I’m glad that MoJo is gone. Of the final four teams, they were the only ones that I definitely didn’t want to win. I think the Frat Boys are actually a stronger team than the Hippies so I’m tempted to put them in first, but I’ll stick with the order I’ve been saying: Hippies, Frat Boys, Ray & Yolanda. This will be my last prediction since the next episode is the finale. It should be a good finish.

Survivor: This time I was wrong in who I thought Terry would team with. The previews were indeed showing the truth since he did team up with Danielle (the other two apparently didn’t try to get on his side – they didn’t have much of a chance to since the two groups were completely separated between the two challenges). It didn’t give away how the episode would end since Terry actually didn’t win the immunity challenge this week (meaning that even though he was still safe, his “teammate” wasn’t). All of that messed up all of the brainstorming I had done. Plus, they didn’t even show us who ended up leaving – they did a cheesy “to be continued”. A fire-making tiebreaker between Danielle and Cirie will determine which group of two has the control. I expect these groups of two to hold true to their word on who they will take to the finals, meaning that Aras & Cirie would take each other, and Terry & Danielle would take each other. So everything hinges now on who wins the tiebreaker challenge, and then on who wins the final challenge. In the previews (which yes, I’m trusting more now), Cirie was shown to have a fire growing much higher than Danielle’s. I hope I’m wrong, but I say that Cirie is going to win this challenge. Therefore, Terry’s only hope of making it to the end would be to win the final immunity challenge. (On a side note, I’m glad he kept his hidden idol. Although in hindsight, giving it to Danielle would have paid off, it was way too risky of a move to make). Sadly, I’m starting to have my doubts about Terry winning the final challenge. Aras now has confidence on his side. The previews showed a challenge (maybe it was only a reward challenge) that I think involved climbing rather than just pure endurance. I now think it could go either way, Aras or Terry could win it. If Aras wins it and takes Cirie, I say that Aras wins the vote. If Terry wins it (it doesn’t matter who he takes, but I’ll guess that he’ll take Cirie), I say that Terry wins the vote. So my order could either be: Aras, Cirie, Terry, Danielle – or Terry, Cirie, Aras, Danielle. For the sake of commitment, I’ll go with the one that has Terry winning. We’ll find out on Sunday, so don’t forget to watch.

05-08-06

I’ve started commenting on TV shows, and now I can’t stop (at least I’m updating this site with something). American Idol and The Amazing Race haven’t aired since my last blog, but Survivor has so I’ll talk about it. I was wrong in who would go (of course), but I’ve been right the last two weeks with whom I predicted Terry would try to sway to his side. First it was Danielle & Courtney, and last week it was Shane. Terry was right to share his reward with Shane, but unfortunately it didn’t pay off since Shane has already gotten the boot. Well, I found out the rule regarding the hidden idol that I was wondering about. It can be used to get Terry into the final three (and will be used for that unless he wins the immunity challenge again this week). He mentioned that he could take the upcoming immunity challenge off, but it would be to his advantage to win it again if possible. If he did so, he would be able to trade the hidden idol to someone else for their loyalty. Either way, he’s guaranteed a spot in the final three, and he’s the clear favorite to win the final immunity challenge (which is usually endurance) and choose whom to bring to the final two with him. The remaining players have to start realizing his power (they should have long ago) and try to make a bargain with him. Unless they’re stupid, all three of them will approach him privately and attempt to make a final-two agreement. The previews showed that Danielle indeed has these thoughts, and I’m sure the other two will finally wise up as well. If Terry knew that he would win the final immunity challenge, he wouldn’t need an agreement with any of them, he could take whoever he felt he had the best chance of beating in the vote. However, just to improve his chances in case he doesn’t win that challenge, he should team up with one of the three. This (to win the final challenge) being his only motivator for making a deal, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that he’ll cut an agreement with his biggest rival, Aras. If anyone might beat him in the challenge, Aras has the best shot. They can each agree to take the other to the final two if either of them wins. If Terry wins immunity this week, he can give Aras his hidden idol which would mean that whichever of the girls they wanted to vote out would be gone, even if the vote was a 2-2 tie. I say they get rid of Danielle since she’s a bigger challenge threat than Cirie. Now, you might question why (if Terry does decide to make a deal) would he not choose to take the person he feels he has the best chance against in the vote? That person would probably be Danielle (Courtney & Shane are probably mad at her). This makes sense, but since the previews have already showed that she is ready to team up with Terry, I say that it won’t happen (surely they wouldn’t already be giving up such a key element in the previews). It’s possible that he would take her though, since she would seem to be the best chance to beat in the vote. I don’t see a reason for him to make a deal with Cirie at this point, since she isn’t a threat to win challenges and she doesn’t have many enemies on the jury. Assuming Terry makes it to the jury vote, what are his chances? He’ll need to have at least four votes go his way. Two of those would have to come from his former tribe mates Austin & Sally. How could he pick up another two considering that the other tribe still seems adamant against him winning? Perhaps Bruce would vote his way, since Bruce seems like a reasonable guy and he got along with Terry. The best chance for another would come from Courtney or Shane since they probably feel betrayed by their former tribe mates. If Terry does hold the luxury of giving away his hidden idol this week, perhaps he should make the recipient promise to vote for him if they wind up in the jury. If the jury is reasonable, they will realize that Terry deserves the win for kicking their butts after being outgunned 6 to 1. Most of them don’t seem reasonable, but he should be able to plead his case convincingly enough to pull it out unless they decide to be jerks just to spite him. He probably wouldn’t get Aras’ vote, but I guess that’s another reason to bring Aras to the final two – so that Aras doesn’t get to cast a vote, ha ha. Another unusual thing in Terry’s favor is that because he hasn’t had anybody on his side in a long time, he hasn’t had to deceive anybody to advance further. Once again, I’m sure this will get messed up in the next episode but here’s my latest predicted order: Terry, Aras, Cirie, Danielle.

Oh, by the way, I’ve posted some more photo sets on my flickr site as I’m trying to get caught up on last month’s pictures.

TV update (05-04-06)

Well, I got none of the predictions in my last blog right (concerning who would go next on each of those shows), but I was close.

American Idol: The only glaring mistake I've made so far was to think that Kellie would be able to stick around much longer. It seems that the voters agreed with my take on her and she left last week like I thought she should. I was right to list Paris next though, as she left this week. I'll keep my predicted order for the rest the same: Chris, Taylor, Katharine, Elliott.

Amazing Race: Last week, I predicted that Ray & Yolanda would go, with Fran & Berry going next. I was close, Fran & Berry left, and Ray & Yolanda came in next to last. This week was a non-elimination round so nobody left, therefore it didn't spoil my predictions any further. Although Ray & Yolanda actually finished high (first place) for the first time ever this week, I still don't see them winning the race. Their finish was mostly the luck of choosing the quickest detour, not the result of any special performance on their part. I wouldn't mind if they did win, since all the other remaining teams are starting to annoy me more than Ray & Yolanda do. The Hippies have started playing a bit "mean" with others. MoJo started playing mean a week or two ago. The frat boys (although slimy in character) hadn't been playing the game too dirty, until this week when they cancelled the cabs that two of the other teams had ordered. I'm still not completely rooting for any of these teams above all others, as my opinions of them keep changing. My predictions shall remain in the same order for now: the Hippies, the Frat Boys, MoJo, and Ray & Yolanda. This week's episode was the first time that I had seen last place come down to a footrace between three different teams. It would have been a significant finish, if it hadn't turned out to be "non-elimination" (which was fortunate for the Hippies again since BJ fell down and got beat to the mat by Monica. It was stupid of him to not have put his shoes on in the car.)

Survivor: I came real close last week in predicting that Terry would bring Courtney & Danielle to his side. It almost happened, if not for the meddling of Cirie who swayed Danielle into another plan. They should have left Cirie out of it, but I take it that Danielle & Courtney each believed her to be allied with them – just as Shane and Aras believed her to be on their side. I'm thinking that Cirie, Danielle, & Aras have been tight for some time (as evidenced by their reward trip together a few weeks ago), and that their other alliances have just been shams to keep Shane & Courtney fooled. Cirie & Aras obviously weren't concerned about alienating Shane last week when they didn't let him in on the truth of how they were voting. I think before that vote that Shane believed himself to be aligned with Aras & Cirie; Aras believed himself to be aligned with Cirie & Danielle (Danielle believed the same, although she came close to jumping to Terry's side with Courtney); and that Cirie was actually keeping all of her options open, while letting everyone but Terry think that she was on their side. My predictions got very messed up with Courtney going last week, so I'll have to rethink them. Shane should start to realize that he isn't safe with his buddies. I would think that someone would realize that Terry is guaranteed to make the final four (plus he's a challenge-winning machine) and try to get on his good side (but they haven't yet). It's totally unpredictable at this point, but maybe Shane will vote with him this week. My biggest unknown with predicting is that I don't remember how long Terry's hidden idol is good for. Is tonight the last time he can use it, or can he use it to get into the final three? If tonight is the last time he can use it, he'll have to get someone on his side to make it into the final three next week (unless of course he wins immunity again). If he can use it next week, he'll probably win immunity at least one out of the next two times, which would get him to the final three without any help. If tonight is the last time he can use it – and he wins immunity tonight, then this would be the time that he actually gives it to someone else to try to buy their loyalty. If he makes it to the final three, the final challenge is usually an endurance one and he'll probably win it. So, I'm still predicting that he can win the game, I'm just not sure on how the events will play out to get him there. Just for the sake of listing another order, I'll go out on a limb and say: Terry, Shane, Cirie, Danielle, Aras – but I have no faith that it'll actually happen in that order.